Analysis lays odds on rookie TV shows

The Fox thriller "Fringe" and CBS' sci-fi drama "Eleventh Hour" will be the highest-rated new shows next season, while NBC's "Kath & Kim" and CBS' "Worst Week" will prove to be weak links in their respective comedy blocks. That's according to media services firm Horizon Media's annual television report that speculates how every broadcast show will fare in the fall. Producer J.J. Abrams' "Fringe" revolves around a trio who explore paranormal mysteries, while Jerry Bruckheimer's "Eleventh Hour" follows a government adviser who saves people from the worst abuses of science. "Kath & Kim," based on an Australian show, stars Molly Shannon and Selma Blair as a dysfunctional mother-daughter combo. "Worst Week," an American version of the BBC's "The Worst Week of My Life," centers on an engaged couple. The Horizon Media analysis contained some unsurprising claims -- that such established hits as ABC's "Grey's Anatomy," NBC's "Heroes" and CBS' "Survivor" will continue to rule their time periods. But there also were some surprises, with the report suggesting that ABC will overthrow CBS on Friday nights and that Fox's under-the-radar sitcom "Do Not Disturb" will break out. In general, the report was skeptical about how new shows in general would stack up against competitors; not one new show is expected to win its time period among adults 18-49, the demographic coveted by advertisers. After "Eleventh" and "Fringe," Horizon had David E. Kelley's upcoming drama "Life on Mars" as the third-highest-rated new show, yet it also expects the time-travel cop show to continue ABC's losing streak at 10 p.m. Thursdays despite its "Grey's" lead-in. The CW's "90210" is expected to outshine the network's current buzz-heavy "Gossip Girl," but won't so much to help the channel's anemic ratings.